Economic conditions in the Twelfth District were mixed during the October to mid-November reporting period. Employment levels ...

We show that the underlying source of inflation impacts financial market perceptions of the persistence of monetary policy ...

The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ ...

On the labor market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it. It’s vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have ...

To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on ...

The SF Fed engages with businesses and communities across the region to gather real-time information on local economic ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...

Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have ...

A range of tariffs on U.S. imports has been enacted or considered recently. Trade tariffs can potentially affect price inflation for consumption and investment goods. Estimates suggest that the impact ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Monetary policy is forward-looking and dependent on policymakers’ economic outlook. When the outlook is deemed highly uncertain, policymakers may put more weight on incoming data when making monetary ...

A substantial and unexpected rise in women’s labor force participation rates over the past few years has been a key factor spurring rapid labor force growth. In particular, Hispanic women have made a ...